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NHC originally forecasted Emily to become a Category 1 hurricane (75 mph) as it approaches Florida. However, various models have a different ideas on timing and strengths of the trough. Various models show a trough digging into the eastern United States later in the period, and this trough will be the forcing mechanism that will push Emily further north and eventually northeast out into the Atlantic. Typically, a stronger cyclone feels the outside effects in the overall steering pattern. Key: a weaker system could become a stronger storm once it leaves Hispaniola and emerges back into the Atlantic Ocean. If the storm is already weak at this point, then the mountains will disrupt the storm, but it will not destroy the system. If the system is strong at this point, then the storm will weaken once it travels over Hispaniola. With this in mind, Emily will have to travel over mountainous terrain that will disrupt the organization of the cyclone. The Cordillera Central range contains the highest mountain in the Caribbean called the Pico Duarte (3,087 meters/10,128 feet). The Dominican Republic contains five mountain ranges, with the Cordillera Central as the highest range. Hispaniola includes the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Now, let’s review the geography of Hispaniola: Next, let’s take a look at the spaghetti models: Possible tracks for Emily from various models Image Credit: Īs you can tell, most of the projected paths show Emily moving over Hispaniola, moving northwest, and eventually curving to the northeast out to sea due to a trough that will pick the system up. First of all, let’s take a look of the projected path of Tropical Storm Emily from the National Hurricane Center (NHC): Track of Tropical Storm Emily Image Credit: National Hurricane Center There are a lot of things we have to take into account. These are excellent questions that do not have a simple answer. What is the track for Tropical Storm Emily? How strong will she get? These elements delayed 91L from developing a closed low, which was the main reason it was not classified until Monday evening. Emily has been interacting with dry air and some wind shear the past couple of days. We have been keeping a close eye on 91L since last Friday, and it took four days to finally develop into a tropical storm. If they encounter one of these three, then a tropical cyclone will have a difficult time maintaining its convection and organization. Tropical cyclones have three basic weaknesses: dry air, moderate to high wind shear, and land interaction. In this post, I will provide information about the difficulty forecasting Emily and the basics for tropical cyclones. Virgin Islands, southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the U.S. Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and Haiti. EDT), Tropical Storm Emily is producing 50 mph winds with a pressure reading of 1005 mb. On August 1, Tropical Storm Emily – the 5th named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season – formed with 40-mile-per-hour (mph) winds and a pressure reading of 1006 millibars (mb).Ĭurrently (Aug11:30 UTC, or 7:30 p.m.